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Russia suffering from missile envy

03/02/08

Russia suffering from missile envy

Permalink 02:43:19 am, Categories: Political Views, Current Events and News, 1994 words

Since my last article I wrote about Russia and its president Putin, things have evolved much further and I have more perspective on why Putin and Russia are behaving like the school yard bullies again. I wanted to write this article about some of the insidious actives Russia has being up to in the last couple of years and how it is abusing its power, but as I learnt more, and as I learnt the politics of each independent state bordering Russia I realised how big and complex the issue is, so I will do my best to condense the information into a useful summary and back story of some of the events.

When Putin came to power, he was young, energetic, strong and sober... (all things Yeltsin was not), Putin not only promised democracy but also strength, and that's what millions of Russians longed for after the chaos of the Yeltsin years. At first almost everyone was happy with this. The Russians had a strong leader that was going to change and modernize their country and the West were happier with a united Russia rather than a divided one (simply because of Russia's immense nuclear stockpile).

However, events where set into motion when a group Islamic religious fanatics attacked the United States by flying passenger aircraft into the Twin Towers in New York on 9/11. Russia's President Putin was the first head of state to contact the United States and President Bush to offer both the condolences of Russia and any support Russia could offer... including allowing forward military bases in central Asia states.

Putin thought that by showing his support, and offering out an olive branch, the United States and NATO would understand the integral border problems it was having with its own religious separatist conflict in Chechnya, and together they would fight Islamic religious extremism. Working along side America and the European Union on such a project with benefit all involved.

Bush took Putin's offer and set up more military bases in central Asia, which in turn angered a lot of powerful Russian leaders who were also concerned about the expansion of Russia's long time nemesis... NATO. In 2002 seven more nations were invited to join and Bush had to fly to St Petersburg to try calm down an agitated Putin. Russian-American relations took a dramatic turn for the worse when Bush ordered the attack on Iraq against the Kremlin's requests.

The United States and European countries were also involved in financing a lot pro-democratic reformation movements in the former Soviet states. These were called to the Color Revolutions and lead to democratic revolutions over autocratic authorising rule such as Ukrainian Orange Revolution and the Georgian Rose Revolution. In all these revolutions the people of those countries spoke and ousted their corrupt pro-Russian leaders for more transparent pro-West democratic leaders as the people of each country took control and responsibility for their futures.

Increasingly Putin felt like a jilted bride with Bush making small concessions while he was at the same time expanding NATO influence over countries that Russia still regarded as its own charges. Russia also considered the eastern expansion of NATO to be in contradiction of an earlier NATO/Soviet Union agreement for NATO not to expand eastwards. To add to this was the fear within Russia's ruling party that pro-west influence may spread into Russia itself, and the FSB (the new KGB) were quick to stamp out the flames of dissent within its own borders so that Russian leaders would not lose control of Russia like what had happened in the Ukrainian Orange Revolution.

In process to wipe out political pro-west opposition from with Russia, Putin moved forward and took control of Russia's Gazprom and its other large corporations and in turn was able to use these companies to further what his future political ambitions. Over half of Gazprom's shares are now owned by the state and its Chairman Demetri Medvedev will be Russia's next president (at the time of writing this article, Russia's 2008 elections are underway, but I still have not seen the official results).

For Putin a strong Russia no longer meant a Russia that would be a worthy partner for America, it meant a Russia that would defend itself against the West and offer a more authoritarian political model.

To put this new attitude into perspective lets have a look at current and ongoing abuses of Russian power, and when you look at the selective use of its authority you will get a better idea of why you should behave more critically to Russia's ruling parties policies and actions;

Let me start with a situation that has been ongoing since 2006 and by yesterdays news, had resurrected its ugly head. With the Ukraine considering halting payment to the Commonwealth of Independent States (a lose collection of states with shared policies that was created to allow a civilised divorce of some previous Soviet Union countries) and its growing support for EU acceptance and NATO defence... Russia has responded. After the Ukrainian Orange Revolution Russia showed its displeasure by getting its state asset Gazprom to cut the gas line that supplies parts of Europe and parts of the Ukraine.

This was done for three reasons. Firstly to punish the Ukraine for its EU ambitions, secondly to try convey a perspective that the 'rebel' republics are too unreliable for the delivery of energy from Russia to Europe (and in so promote the Nord Stream pipeline). At least nine European countries (and these included, France, Germany and Italy) registered a 20% to 33% drop in their gas supply from the Ukraine. Which leads us to the third reason that it very much intertwined with the second reason. To show the European Union that Russia was displeased with the Color Revolutions and Europe's support of democratic and human rights orientated political movements.

The Ukraine was not the only country to suffer this economic and energy supply bullying. Belarus, Moldova and Georgia all had their gas supplies threatened or cut due to their political policies of democratic reformation and accountability. Gas is not the only economic weapon used against neighbouring states that do not follow the Kremlin's demands.

Lithuania, Belarus, Poland and Latvia have had their oil supplies threatened or cut off by Russia. In more stranger abuses of economic power, Poland has being on the receiving end of a Russian ban on imported Polish meat, and Georgia and Moldova have had their wines and mineral waters banned from entering the country.

These changing republics are not just the victims of Russia ability to use its economic power to bully them... recently, when Estonia moved the graves and statue commemorated to honor solders who died during the Soviet era, Russia found a perfect excuse to test its cyber warfare capabilities and in a way showcase them to the world.

On April 27, 2007 a cyber (hacker attack) blasted the online services of Estonian organizations, including the Estonian parliament, telecommunications, banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters bringing the countries communications to a grinding halt. While Russia has managed somehow to keep its hand clears of being directly responsible for the attack, experts (including top Russian hackers ... some of whom were involved in the attack), confirmed that such an attack with its sophistication and coordination and the shear use of resources could not have being orchestrated or allowed without Kremlin involvement.

As all these event unfolded, I kept expecting massive resistance to the Russian governments actions by the people of Russia. The Russian people are smart... "any moment now they are going to reign their leaders in and take back control of their country", I thought. I was disappointed. Putin and his party have popular support in Russia as a lot of the Russian populace feel that Putin is putting forward good economic reforms that are helping the country, and that Putin is showing Russian strength by standing up against America and western policies. You see, the sad thing for the people of Russia is some how they equate respect with fear. Russians tend to believe that if the EU and the US fear Russian power and aggression that they will earn respect they feel they deserve.

Its at this moment I have to put the above perception of the Putin supporting Russian into perspective with an analogy. A weak man beats his wife into submission so that the wife respects him out of fear and self preservation. A good man builds her confidence, looks after her feelings and supports and protects her. To me... a Putin supporting Russian is a weak man. I can have no respect for someone who reasons like that.

Not all Russians are for Putin, Russian Grandmaster chess players, heads of business, political opposition parties and many human rights organizations are shouting foul, however their voices are not enough. Critics of Putin are quickly and efficiently ridiculed, abused, threatened and killed.

One can not but compare the economic and political situation of Germany and the end of world war one, and the decline of the Soviet Union after the Cold War. You will also notice a lot of similarities to how Germans felt after world war one, and the feeling of defeat the Russians felt when communism fell.

Hitler was able to convince a country that it could regain its power in the world through economic power and military strength. For a short while... he was not wrong. The Germans, noglastic on the memories of its power and stature before the Treaty of Versailles, quickly stood behind the dreams of Hitler in what they considered was the right way to take their place as again as leaders in (and apparently of) Europe. The same can be seen happening in Russia. The Russian people felt defeated with the fall of the Soviet Union, and the drunken debauchery of its political leaders before Putin came to power. Putin came into power when the corruption and mismanagement of the past left much to be desired and Russia was almost in a state of economic collapse. Putin has managed to take control of the country, and like Hitler is offering the elixir of previous power and strength through economic reform and military might.

There are many many more similarities and warning signs than the ones I have briefly mentioned. Even Hitlers Nazi Youth has a Russian counterpart, the Nashi youth movement (who claimed part responsibility for the cyber attacks launched against Estonia. I am also not the only person to link the similarities between Hitlers Youth and the Nashi Youth.

Perhaps I am being to harsh with comparing Russia's mood and politics to that of Hitlers, but from where I am sitting, I see Putin using Russia to commit attacks on weaker nations... and mostly nations with pro democratic, EU and NATO ambitions seem to be specifically targeted, and I have to wonder why Russia is so scared of the reformation happening in these smaller countries. After all, the reformations have lead to more accountability and transparency in those governments.

My perspective so far based on the balance of evidence is that former secret and security services members have managed to take control of Russia through political manipulation and intimidation after the KGB (now the FSB) failed to take control of Russia in a military coup they attempted. Using the FSB (KGB) to bully big money in Russia assured the compliance of businessman to tow the new Kremlin line, and use of special services skills were used to destroy any real political opposition. Over the last couple of years, Putin has centralised power and has an extremely strong autocratic method of rule.

The old KGB now has control of the Kremlin and Russia, and the people behind this organisation are not going to give up that power easily.

Russia leaders are scared of real democracy and the concept of accountability for one simple reason. To quote Hitler, "You can not keep with a democracy what you have taken with force"

Permalink 1 comment

Comments:

Comment from: David A. Andelman [Visitor]
"The Germans, noglastic on the memories of its power and stature before the Treaty of Versailles...."
As you will discover in my compelling new book, "A Shattered Peace: Versailles 1919 and the Price We Pay Today" [www.ashatteredpeace.com ] just published by Wiley !
Best,
David A. Andelman
david@ashatteredpeace.com
Permalink 03/04/08 @ 03:24

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